Fair-Value MLB Model · 2026 Season

Bet the number,
not the noise.

Independent Baseball Projections models a fair win probability for every MLB game, then flags the bets where our line beats the book — every pick logged before first pitch and tracked in full.

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↓ View track record & methodology
Today's Value Bets
Each bar — grey = book implied probability · green gap = model edge · ▏ = Independent Baseball Projections model
Starting pitcher info and odds are captured at model run time — always verify current starters and lines before betting.
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ℹ️ About this model ▾

Pitcher quality, lineup status, park factors, weather, bullpen quality, BvP career matchup, arsenal fit, market audit, and more — applied as model adjustments before the market edge comparison. The final Independent Baseball Projections probability is compared against the no-vig Pinnacle probability to identify pricing gaps. Only picks with ≥4% edge vs. Pinnacle are posted.

Model
Dual-Poisson + log-odds
Benchmark
No-vig Pinnacle
Signals
33 log-odds adj.
Calibration
Platt-scaled monthly
  • Every pick is logged before first pitch — timestamps are immutable
  • Results are never deleted after losses
  • Closing-line value is tracked to verify edge holds to close
  • Live results are reported separately from historical backtests
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results
What is a fair line?
The theoretical price at which neither side has an edge — the true implied probability converted to American odds with no margin. Independent Baseball Projections computes this from its model probability.
How is edge calculated?
Edge is the difference between the model's win probability and the market's implied probability (after removing the vig). Independent Baseball Projections only posts picks with at least 4% edge vs. Pinnacle's no-vig line.
Does past performance guarantee future results?
No. Sports betting involves risk and variance. The model identifies positive expected value — not certainty. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
⚠️ For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Must be 18+ and located in a legal jurisdiction. Bet responsibly.
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