Model Validation · Updated Daily

Model Dashboard

Bankroll growth, edge-tier ROI, and backtested results — the full case for whether the edge is real. How it works →

LIVE POSTED PICKS
Tracked results from picks posted on the site before first pitch.
Live results reflect posted picks only. Backtested validation is shown separately below.
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$5,000 Bankroll Growth — Flat $100/bet (2%) vs. Fractional Kelly · 2026 Season
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Monthly ROI — 2026 Season
Flat $100/bet · consistency matters as much as overall ROI
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ROI by Model Edge — Does Higher Confidence Pay Off?
Edge Tier Performance — 2026 Season
If the model is well-calibrated, higher-edge picks should pay more over time. The live 2026 tiers aren't cleanly monotonic yet — watch whether higher edge keeps paying as the sample grows
TierBetsW–LWin%ROIUnits
Populates as picks settle.
We re-ran our exact — settled bets 10,000 times, keeping every price the same and drawing each outcome at the market's implied win rate — i.e. a bettor with no edge taking these same lines. That no-edge bettor finishes around — on average (middle 90% land between —). We actually finished — — better than — of those no-edge seasons.
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Our result (units)
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No-edge median
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Percentile vs luck
Why this alone doesn't prove an edge: this test says our results have outrun luck at the posted prices — it does not show that the market agreed we had an edge. We treat the edge as unproven.
Monte Carlo over our exact bets and prices — only the outcomes are randomized, each at its line's market-implied probability. A genuine same-sample test of selection skill vs. luck; makes no assumptions about games we didn't bet.
⚠ Tiny samples (min. 3 picks). A 3–0 pitcher at +129% ROI is noise, not a pattern — nothing here feeds the model or should feed your bets. Shown because we show everything.
Backtested Model Validation — Development Period 2022–2024 (Hypothetical) · Not Live Results
Improving Every Backtest Year
vs. −4.0% baseline (bet every game, full vig drain) · 7,359 games backtested
+10.4%
Sharpe Ratio
1.82
backtested · annualized
Brier Score
0.234
vs. 0.250 market
Max Drawdown
−12.4u
backtested
Edge Threshold
4pp
min to post
All figures above are development-period backtest results (2022–2024, hypothetical). The walk-forward simulation trained each year on prior seasons, but the calibration layer was fitted on this same period — treat these as development evidence, not proof. Live 2026 results appear in the sections above as picks settle.
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